‘We are all deeply afraid that this is the beginning of that dreaded second wave,’ says emergency room doctor

‘We are all deeply afraid that this is the beginning of that dreaded second wave,’ says emergency room doctor

The latest forecast of an influential coronavirus model projects 394,693 total US coronavirus deaths by February 1.

That’s about 181,000 additional lives lost beyond the current US death toll of 213,860, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

The model, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, projects that daily deaths in the US will peak at about 2,300 in mid-January. For comparison, Friday’s US death toll was 990, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The new projections are based off of current conditions. If US social distancing mandates are eased, the model projects 502,852 coronavirus-related deaths by February 1.

Masks make a difference. If 95% of people in the US wore masks, the model projects that 79,000 fewer lives would be lost by February 1, and daily deaths would peak at less than 1,400. 

Greater context: Globally, the model predicts that 2,488,346 people will die from coronavirus by February 1. The model shows that if 95% of people around the world wore masks, more than three-quarters of a million lives would be saved by that date.

 

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