In the future after rating the top 100 individual prospects in baseball heading into the 2021 MLB season, it is time to flip our consideration to every crew’s farm system as a complete.
These rankings of all 30 organizations had been completed, for probably the most half, the identical method last year’s had been. Briefly, whereas at FanGraphs, Craig Edwards’ analysis revealed empirical surplus greenback values for every FV tier of prospect, so we are able to now make an goal rating derived from my particular person crew lists.
You could be questioning how this might be a lot totally different from final 12 months’s rankings since there wasn’t a minor league season, and I am glad you requested! Various components modified a crew’s place from final 12 months presently. The plain stuff is incoming (draft, worldwide signings, commerce) and outgoing gamers (graduations, commerce). Since we did not have a standard minor league season, there’s little motion from gamers within the decrease minors, with a few arrow up/down gamers from every membership that had a fall educational league.
There are additionally a handful of movers from alternate websites, however each of those camps had fewer scouts in comparison with a minor league season; there was some information/video sharing from some groups at alternate websites, and a few instructs video games had scouts current. The largest worth features come within the prime 100, each as a result of the anticipated contributions of any participant not within the prime 100 is valued at lower than $10 million, whereas that of the highest participant’s is price $112 million in anticipated efficiency, and in addition as a result of the perfect prospects are ones who can achieve a whole lot of worth from enjoying nicely within the huge leagues.
There are additionally two much less apparent components:. First, final 12 months I used the generic values for every FV tier, so the fiftieth and a hundred and tenth prospects had been price precisely the identical. Normally, this would not transfer many farm programs that a lot. This 12 months I used a graduated scale with a small distinction between every spot within the prime 117 (all of the 50 FV and higher prospects). I additionally discovered that some gamers on the backside ranges of the minors slipped a half-grade simply because I had some anticipation of a breakout factored in final 12 months, and few of them went to the alternate website, coaching at dwelling for months, and a few did not even get a proper educational league.
A brand new component this 12 months, because it’s my second doing these rankings for ESPN, is displaying the motion from final 12 months’s record. I did not take a look at these till I would locked all of the rankings, so there are a few traits that emerged within the metadata. First, all 30 farm programs add as much as $6.137 billion, down nearly $400 million from final 12 months. This additionally comes with 99 further prospects making the crew lists. I feel it is because the knowledge I am getting from alternate websites and instructs tends to be constructive, and the unfavorable is certified with the entire circumstances from final 12 months. With out prospects having the ability to put up an terrible stat line, it is exhausting to take one off a listing. So, the underside of the lists tends to be longer with a scarcity of dangerous information, whereas the highest of the lists cannot transfer that far north with no constructive information on the elite prospects.
So, with no minor league season, the highest of the record is held down a bit, and the underside of the record is pushed up a bit, or not minimize off the record when it in any other case would have been. Extra gamers on the record, much less general worth; that is smart to me. I do not suppose this particular set of circumstances will ever occur once more, and I actually hope it does not. On to the farm rankings!